Alright, let's dive into this Nebius (NBIS) Q3 preview. "Vineland ramp is the key catalyst," huh? Easy for some engineer-turned-investor to say. I mean, come on, another deep value play banking on some mythical ramp-up? Haven't we seen this movie a million times?
The "Catalyst" That Never Catalyzes
This guy, "Mr. Aeronautical Engineering Consultant" (who felt the need to tell us about his fancy degree, by the way), is all hopped up on insider buying after a sell-off. Okay, I get it. Insiders buying low can be a good sign. But let's be real, it could also mean they're just trying to pump the stock before the whole damn thing implodes. Are we supposed to just blindly trust these guys?
He does mention doing background checks on the insiders. But how deep are we talking? Did he check their tax returns? Their dating history? Because let's be honest, sometimes the skeletons in the closet are what really drive these decisions.
And this "contrarian investment style, highly risky"? Translation: he's throwing darts at a board and hoping for the best. Just like the rest of us, except he's trying to sound sophisticated about it.
Multicolor Lines and Jumbo Jets
"You can land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off." What the hell does that even mean? Is he trying to be poetic? Because it comes across as just plain confusing. I get it, liquidity is low, but did he really need to throw in the aviation metaphor?
He also mentions using "multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts." Seriously? I thought we left that stuff back in the early 2000s. Last time I checked, drawing pretty lines on a chart didn't magically predict the future.
Speaking of the future, let's talk about this "Vineland ramp." What if it doesn't happen? What if there are unforeseen delays? What if some other company comes along and eats their lunch? This whole thesis seems way too reliant on a single, unproven factor. You can read more about the original analysis in Nebius Q3 Earnings Preview: Vineland Ramp Is The Key Catalyst For Full-Year Targets (NASDAQ:NBIS).
Offcourse, he does say he uses fundamental analysis to check the health of the company. But what metrics is he really looking at? Is he just cherry-picking data to fit his narrative? And does he even understand the nuances of the industry?
I'm not saying he's wrong. Maybe this Vineland ramp will be the catalyst that sends Nebius soaring. But color me skeptical. I've seen too many "sure things" turn into spectacular flameouts to get my hopes up.
The Banana Republic Disclaimer
And then there's this gem: "although I may own shares in banana republics." Okay, first of all, that's a pretty broad generalization. Second, why even mention it? Is he trying to sound edgy and worldly? Or is he just trying to cover his ass in case things go south?
Honestly, the whole thing reeks of overconfidence and wishful thinking. He's basically saying, "I found this hidden gem, and I'm smarter than everyone else because I'm an engineer!"
Then again, maybe I'm just being cynical. Maybe this guy really has found the next big thing. But until I see some concrete results, I'm keeping my powder dry.
